ABSTRACT
This study aimed to analyse the spatial-temporal distribution of COVID-19 mortality in Sergipe, Northeast, Brazil. It was an ecological study utilising spatiotemporal analysis techniques that included all deaths confirmed by COVID-19 in Sergipe, from 2 April to 14 June 2020. Mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 inhabitants and the temporal trends were analysed using a segmented log-linear model. For spatial analysis, the Kernel estimator was used and the crude mortality rates were smoothed by the empirical Bayesian method. The space-time prospective scan statistics applied the Poisson's probability distribution model. There were 391 COVID-19 registered deaths, with the majority among ⩾60 years old (62%) and males (53%). The most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension (40%), diabetes (31%) and cardiovascular disease (15%). An increasing mortality trend across the state was observed, with a higher increase in the countryside. An active spatiotemporal cluster of mortality comprising the metropolitan area and neighbouring cities was identified. The trend of COVID-19 mortality in Sergipe was increasing and the spatial distribution of deaths was heterogeneous with progression towards the countryside. Therefore, the use of spatial analysis techniques may contribute to surveillance and control of COVID-19 pandemic.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Age Factors , Aged , Bayes Theorem , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19/complications , Cardiovascular Diseases/complications , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cities , Cluster Analysis , Comorbidity , Diabetes Complications/epidemiology , Educational Status , Female , Humans , Hypertension/complications , Hypertension/epidemiology , Linear Models , Male , Middle Aged , Monte Carlo Method , Race Factors , Risk Factors , Rural Health , Sex Factors , Spatial Analysis , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Time FactorsSubject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Humans , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , SARS-CoV-2 , Tuberculosis/therapyABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyze and compare the indicators of urban mobility and the number of new cases of COVID-19 recorded daily between 2020 and 2021. METHODS: An observational study was carried out involving new cases of COVID-19 registered daily in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil between March 12, 2020 and March 28, 2021 and six indicators of urban mobility. For analysis, the study was divided into two periods: the first was composed of 295 days and represents the year 2020 and the second was composed of 86 days and represents the year 2021. Spearman's non-parametric correlation was used. RESULTS: In 2021, the greatest reductions in relation to the baseline were observed in parks (-29.0) and in retail and recreation areas (-28.7). However, these reductions were smaller than those observed in the previous year, indicating a greater circulation of people in 2021 when compared with mobility in 2020. In contrast, in residential areas, there was a reduction in the percentage change in relation to the previous year (11.2 in 2019 and 7.6 in 2021). In grocery and pharmacy, there was an increase 1.8 times greater than that observed in 2020 (9.1 in 2020 and 17.0 in 2021). It is also noteworthy that the daily average of new cases almost doubled in value (753.4 in 2020 and 1409.1 in 2021). CONCLUSION: More vigorous measures must be taken to adequately control the pandemic.